And here’s a positive snapshot of the global economy from Markit:

The pound is likely to fall quite a bit further if Brexit talks break down, says Capital Economics, but the extent of the currency’s decline since the referendum might limit the damage.

Overall the consultancy believes a favourable deal is still the most likely outcome, which should give some support to sterling. Capital Economics’ Oliver Jones says:

We think that a transitional deal which largely preserves the status quo will eventually be reached, and a favourable agreement on the future trading relationship will ultimately be struck too.

Given how investors are positioned, signs that such an arrangement is likely might not give sterling much of a lift. But we think that progress towards this type of deal would help the UK economy to hold up better than most expect. We suspect that this would prompt the Bank of England to raise rates by more than is discounted in markets, which would probably support sterling.

Admittedly, we forecast that sterling will weaken a little against the dollar in 2018 as the Fed tightens by even more relative to investors’ expectations. But we project that sterling will strengthen against most other major currencies.

Following the weaker than expected US service sector surveys, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost its early gains and dipped slightly into the red.

The ISM’s Anthony Nieves said: “The rate of growth has lessened in the non-manufacturing sector after two very strong months of growth. Comments from the survey respondents indicate that the economy and sector will continue to grow for the remainder of the year.”

And here are some of the comments from the ISM report:

• “Domestic business is strong, with positive growth indicators for 2018 from both internal sources and client feedback.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  
• “Construction labor continues to be constrained in the West.” (Construction)
• “Steady; no material changes.” (Finance & Insurance)
• “We continue to struggle with understanding the [potential] changes to the Affordable Care Act, and are trying to be flexible in how we respond. Also, Hurricane Maria has affected some of our pharmaceutical supplies.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
• “Mixed bag of goods for November 2017. Typical seasonal increases for specific braising cuts of beef as the holidays approach. Some volatility on produce items such as brussel sprouts. Expect cream to spike due to holiday season.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
• “Business seems to be leveling off. Attribute this to the holiday season that is approaching.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
• “Business is strong, but not as strong as Q3.” (Retail Trade)
• “Bookings would suggest a strong run to the end of the year.” (Wholesale Trade)

The first of two US service sector surveys shows a slightly larger than expected fall in November.

The Markit final service sector PMI has come in at 54.5, down from 55.3 in October and below the initial estimate of 54.7. This is the lowest reading since June.

The rival ISM survey is due shortly.

And over to Bitcoin, which continues to defy gravity:

The cryptocurrency has hit a high of $11,850 so far today before slipping back to $11,803.

Back with UK car sales, and here is our report by Angela Monagham:

UK sales of new cars fell for an eighth consecutive month in November as economic uncertainty and a sharp fall in demand for diesel cars weighed on demand.

Sales slumped by 11.2% last month to 163,541 vehicles, putting the industry on course for the first drop in annual sales since 2011. New car sales in the first 11 months of 2017 were down by 5% at 2.39m.

The November decline was driven by a 30.6% fall in diesel sales according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which more than offset a 5% rise in petrol and 33% rise in alternatively fuelled vehicles.

Companies cut back on new cars the most, with business registrations slumping by 33.6%. Private registrations fell by 5.1%, while fleet registrations dropped by 14.4%.

“An eighth month of decline in the new car market is a major concern, with falling business and consumer confidence exacerbated by ongoing anti-diesel messages from government,” said Mike Hawes, the chief executive of the industry trade body.

The full story is here:

The fall in the pound’s value is supporting shares in London today.

The FTSE 100 is the only European stock index that hasn’t lost ground - as investors ponder Brexit, and the prospect of US tax reforms.

Chris Weston of IG says:

“The two overarching macro themes the market honed in on overnight have been the response from European and U.S. traders to the Senate passing its tax plan and that no deal has yet been formally reached in the Brexit negotiations,”

David Davis, Britain’s secretary of state for exiting the EU, is answering an urgent question on the Brexit talks in parliament.

Andrew Sparrow’s Politics live blog has full details:

Former transport secretary Andrew Adonis says rail passengers should blame the slump in the pound since the Brexit vote for pushing up fares.

As explained earlier, the rail fares increase is linked to the retail prices index, which has been pushed up by the rising cost of imports.

Lord Adonis says this means people face paying more simply to get to work (which wasn’t on the voting paper on June 23rd 2016):

“Commuters are feeling the Brexit squeeze already, as the rise in inflation has pushed up rail fares in their highest increase for five years.

“There is no doubting the impact of the plunge in the value of the pound after the Brexit vote on people’s spending power. And now the Government’s extreme Brexit plans, and its continued inability to make progress in the negotiations, is causing deep uncertainty and keeping our currency weak.

The Bank of England has admitted to warning UK courts to expect a deluge of insurer applications ahead of Brexit.

The BoE tipped off the High Court, but kept this move private to avoid spooking policyholders - and triggering an even bigger rush to m’learned friends. Now, though, it believes the situation is under control - so we’re allowed to know about it.

Press Association has the details:

Minutes from a November meeting of the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) show that members were given “early estimates” around the number of policyholders that would be impacted if insurers lost permission to collect premiums and pay out claims on cross-border contracts after Brexit.

It is the latest revelation around Brexit preparations being made by both the UK Government and regulators as banks, asset managers and insurers prepare for the loss of passporting rights which currently grant cross-border access throughout the EU.

In light of the potential “risks”, the committee was told insurers were planning to either transfer contacts to new entities or gain new permissions for existing operations, a process that could take between 12 to 18 months.

“Given the volume of these applications was expected to be three to five times the normal level, there was a risk that transfers would not be completed in time,” the FPC said.

The minutes (online here) have more details.

The slowdown in UK service sector growth is weighing on the pound.

Sterling is currently down 0.5% at $1.3405, as traders watch for any signs of Brexit progress.

William Anderson Jones, head of UK corporate dealing at RationalFX, says:

The Brexit woes were coupled with disappointing services data for November further deepening the losses and putting further downward pressure on the pound. Despite recent manufacturing and construction figures both beating previous estimates, the service PMI, although fuelled with optimism, missed expectations. Analysts have pointed out that Brexit related uncertainty and its effect on UK firms is leading cause of the sharp downtrend, painting a bleak picture of a dominant sector.

Investors and pound traders are now looking towards the next big deadline at the December 14^th-15^th EU Summit where the EU is set to give its verdict on whether Britain can progress to discussing their future relationship. The pound will be in focus for investors over the coming days and there may be more optimism amongst investors ahead of the December EU Summit next week, however, further political doubt could signal more uncertainty for the currency.”

Theresa May is engaged on a high-speed diplomatic drive to resolve the Irish border crisis. But there’s no sign of a breakthrough yet.

Instead, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has argued that the UK should remain ‘aligned’ with the customs union -- that might solve the Irish border problem, but it won’t please the hard-line Brexit wing.

Alex Buttle, director at car buying comparison website Motorway.co.uk, fears that next year will be tough for the car industry.

The solution? More support for the electric car industry.

Buttle says:

“Petrol sales were up last month and the year to date and AFV registrations saw another month of double digit growth, as the electric and hybrid revolution continues to gather pace.

“The Government needs to take note, and put its full backing behind AFV progression by offering more incentives for the consumer.

“When it taxed diesels in the Budget, it hit the car industry in one area but didn’t go far enough in other areas. AFV is the future and more needs to be done to encourage car owners to switch.

“The new car industry will go into 2018 a lot less healthy than it started the year. And with household finances likely to be stretched even more next year, there will be very little incentive for consumers to buy new.

Environmental campaigners were disappointed that chancellor Philip Hammond didn’t announce a diesel scrappage scheme in last month’s budget, to encourage drivers to move to electric....

So far this year, sales of Vauxhall cars are down 22%.

They’ve sold 181,834 vehicles to UK customers since the start of 2017, down from 233,881 in January-November 2016.

That helps explain why PSA Group, its parent company, is cutting 400 jobs at Ellesmere Port in the North West of England.

The Ford Focus hung onto its position as Britain’s most popular car in November:

But.... sales of Ford vehicles did fall by 17% year-on-year in November.

Among other major manufacturers, BMW sales fell by 16%, Audi dropped by 6.6%, Mercedes-Benz gained 6%, Volkswagen lost 2%, and Vauxhall sales slumped by 35%.

Sue Robinson, director of the National Franchised Dealers Association (which represents car dealers), has welcomed the jump in electric car sales.

We are pleased to see the continued increase in market share of AFVs, up 33.1% in November.

The continued commitment from the Government to support the uptake of electric vehicles is extremely encouraging but we also call on the Government to do more to clarify the diesel issue.”

The uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EU is hurting car sales, warns Chris Bosworth, Director of Strategy at Close Brothers Motor Finance.

He says:

“Today’s figures highlight both the cyclical and structural market challenges that the motor industry faced in November, which sees the eighth consecutive month of car registrations being in decline.

Brexit is having an obvious impact on the market as a whole as consumer confidence remains low.

Some of the consumers who are shunning diesel cars are buying electric models instead.

Sales of alternatively-fuelled vehicles jumped by a third in November, from 6,661 to 8,867 units. That’s 5.4% of the market, up from 3.6% a year ago.

This chart, from the SMMT, confirms that UK car sales are down 5% so far this year, led by a slump in demand for diesel.

Another satisfied customer:

It’s another dark morning for UK sub-prime lender Provident Financial.

Shares in Provident have plunged by almost 20%, after it warned investors that it was being investigated by the Financial Conduct Authority (the City watchdog).

The FCA is investigating Provident’s car financing unit, Moneybarn, over how it decided whether its loans to people with bad credit histories were affordable, and how it treated customers in financial distress.

This follows two profit warnings already this year, and the sudden death of executive chair Manjit Wolstenholme last month.

Neil Wilson of ETX Capital says the Moneybarn probe “adds to the woes for the embattled lender and is another headache for management at the worst time”.

Britain’s rail passengers continue to fume about the prospect of next year’s fare hike:

The pound is coming under pressure this morning.

It’s already shed more than half a cent against the US dollar to $1.341, having traded over $1.35 on Monday.

Traders are blaming the latest Brexit crisis; Theresa May is looking more vulnerable today after the Democratic Union Party pulled the rug from under her plan to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Unions have slammed the looming hike in UK rail fares, arguing that passengers aren’t getting a good deal.

RMT union general secretary, Mick Cash, said:

“These fare increases are another kick in the teeth for British passengers who will still be left paying the highest fares in Europe to travel on rammed-out, unreliable trains where private profit comes before public safety.

The news hasn’t been well-received by passengers either, judging by the reaction on social media: