Graeme Wearden 

UK service sector growth hits 11-month low and car sales fall again – as it happened

All the day’s economic and financial news, including a new healthcheck on Britain’s dominant service sector
  
  

Cars on display at a Ford car forecourt in London.
Cars on display at a Ford car forecourt in London. Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP

And finally... US factories have posted their biggest drop in orders in three years - giving traders another excuse to kick the dollar.

Reuters has the details:

New orders for U.S.-made goods recorded their biggest drop in nearly three years in July,but orders for capital goods were stronger than previously reported, pointing to robust business spending at the start of the third quarter.

Factory goods orders tumbled 3.3 percent amid a slump in demand for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

That was the biggest drop since August 2014. June’s data was revised to show orders rising 3.2 percent instead of the previously reported 3.0 percent surge.

The dollar has now dropped to a new one-week low against the yen, below ¥109.

And the pound has now risen above $1.30 for the first time since mid-August.

And that’s a good moment to stop. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

And it’s that time of year when Greece returns to the headlines with the country’s finance minister discussing bailout progress with the EU’s economic commissioner Pierre Moscovici this afternoon.

Helena Smith reports from Athens

The meeting at 4:30pm Brussels time effectively kicks off yet another bailout review between Greece and the international lenders keeping the debt-stricken nation afloat.

One week before technical teams return to Athens, Euclid Tsakalotos, the Greek finance minister and his deputy Giorgos Houliarakis, will attempt to gauge the mood of creditors with Moscovici.

The negotiations, which begin in earnest next month, will focus on around 100 ‘prior actions,’ or reforms, Athens will have to implement if it is to exit its third, €86bn bailout by August next year.

The leftist-led government is hoping the review – the third since the last financial rescue program was agreed in August 2015 – will be completed by December enabling it to return to international markets to finance its debt in 2018.

Today’s meeting comes against the background of controversy caused by Moscovici’s assertion that Greece’s financial rescue was far from democratic.

Speaking to Corriere della Sera, the EU commissioner said:

“It is a scandal in terms of democratic processes, not because the decisions were scandalous, but because the fate of a nation was decided in this way, with the imposition of detailed decisions on pensions and the labour market ... I am talking about the basic details of the life of a country that were decided by a body, behind closed doors, whose work is prepared by technocrats ... without the minimum control of a parliament, without the media really knowing what is being said.”

Film fans will remember that concentrated orange juice futures play a key role in classic movie Trading Places.

And they’re also in the news today for more serious reasons - they’re surging as America prepares for its next hurricane to arrive.

Hurricane Irma is strengthening, and heading towards Florida and Puerto Rico. So while local authorities prepare for major disruption, traders are anticipating that Florida’s fruit-producing economy will take a hit.

The price of frozen orange juice futures has already jumped by 6% in heavy trading:

Over in New York, the US stock market has opened in the red.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped by 0.3%, or 71 points, in early trading to 21,916 points.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also lost ground, as traders got back to work after Monday’s Labor Day break, and a weekend dominated by North Korea.

Dollar drops as Brainard gives dovish speech

Over in America, a key central bank policymaker has argued that US interest rates could rise more slowly than expected.

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard says that her colleagues should be cautious before voting to increase borrowing costs again, as underlying inflation pressures are low.

That’s a sign that Brainard may not be keen to raise borrowing costs at the next Fed meeting, later this month.

She told the Economic Club of New York that strong unemployment figures don’t tell the full story...

There is a notable disconnect between signs that the economy is in the neighborhood of full employment and a string of lower-than-projected inflation readings, especially since inflation has come in stubbornly below target for five years…

Brainard also hints that raising borrowing costs too fast can be dangerous; if it slows growth too much, then the Fed might be forced to cut rates again.

Sustainably achieving our inflation objective is especially important, given the apparent persistently low level of the neutral rate and the resulting limited room for maneuver above the effective lower bound.

Brainard is known as one of the more dovish Fed members anyway, but these comments have still knocked the dollar to a one-week low against the yen.

Updated

Drama has been in short supply across Europe’s stock markets so far today.

The French and German indices are up a bit, while London’s FTSE 100 has dipped slightly into the red.

The pound has recovered a little ground against the US dollar to $1.295, from $1.293, despite the slowdown in the service sector.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says:

Surprisingly sterling wasn’t too bothered about the dip, instead rising 0.2% against both the dollar, weakened by the North Korea issue, and the euro, which is facing the uncertainty of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

This meant the FTSE lost whatever meagre momentum it had after the bell, the index slipping 0.1% to loiter just above 7400.

But....what happened to those worries over North Korea that everyone was talking about yesterday? Well, there’s been nothing (yet) today to raise the risk of nuclear destruction, so traders have taken their minds off it.

David Madden of CMC Markets cautions that this situation may not last long...

We have seen this scenario before where tensions rise and stocks fall, followed by no new developments, and then equities bounce back.

The situation is still ongoing, so today’s positive move could be down to short covering and a bit of bargain hunting. In tense times while these, not many investors would buy into the market for the long haul.

Obviously it’s good news that British service sector companies took on more staff in August (as mentioned earlier).

But, it also highlights a wider problem. Unless this hiring creates extra growth, then the UK economy will simply become more unproductive (as we’ll have more people cranking out the same amount of output).

Economist Rupert Seggins predicts that productivity will actually fall this quarter:

So what’s happening? The suspicion is that Britain’s services sector is relying on low-paid, insecure workers for growth, rather than splashing on expensive new equipment.

This map shows how little capital is invested per worker in the UK, compared to say Germany:

Economists: Risk of a UK recession is rising

City economists are in agreement - the slowdown in Britain’s service sector last month is a worry.

Here’s some reaction:

Dean Turner, Economist at UBS Wealth Management.

“Unlike the manufacturing PMI which beat expectations, today’s services PMI dropped to an 11-month low, with respondents noting the heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook weighing on growth. The numbers are consistent with the economy continuing to make modest progress in the current quarter.

“The most interesting aspect of the report was the reference to cost pressure and the outlook for hiring which accelerated for the third consecutive month. As unemployment is already low, this adds to the concerns that labour shortages could start to push wages higher in the months ahead. With this in mind, today’s figures could make the Monetary Policy Committee sit up and take note.

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at WorldFirst

“Together with manufacturing and construction PMIs, today’s services number indicates a quarterly UK GDP rate of 0.3% – and slowing all the time. Brexit uncertainty, higher costs and lower investment are slowing UK output to a chronic crawl. The summer months may have been warm but the recessional risks for the UK economy are only increasing as we move into Autumn.”

Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com,

“Though the UK’s services sector continues to expand, August’s reading suggests it’s doing so at a worryingly slow pace.

“We’ve not seen such sluggish growth since last September and, although the services sector may not have the potential to dampen GDP as much as manufacturing could, Q3 looks in trouble of coming in below expectations.

“Business conditions remain fragile and unpredictable. As inflationary pressures and slow wage growth intensify, consumer-facing businesses are likely to have felt a drastic slide in trade over the last few months and that spells tougher times ahead for the UK.

Andy Bruce of Reuters has tweeted a nice chart, showing how the UK services PMI is too low to justify an interest rate hike.

The yellow line shows the services PMI, while the green spikes are interest rate hikes or cuts.

The pound has dipped a little, to $1.2920, following today’s services sector PMI.

Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says traders are dialling back their expectations for future interest rate rises.

The services PMI data has shown that the UK’s economy is losing its steam and this means that the Bank of England would have to continue its support. The services PMI data fell short of forecast and traders have pushed the sell button on the back of this....

The Brexit negotiations are going nowhere and this is weighing on the economy and momentum is gradually losing its strength.

Updated

The UK urgently needs a credible ‘transition plan’ for life after Brexit to restore confidence among companies, tweets Julian Jessop of the Institute of Economic Affairs.

Duncan Brock, of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, warns that some UK services companies were “paralysed by economic hesitancy” in August.

Others, though, shrugged off the uncertainty and pressed on with new product launches.

Brock saus August was:

“A slowdown month as the services sector comes off the boil, challenged by a general unwillingness to spend and invest, alongside fragility in confidence amongst consumers as a result of Brexit.

It’s not all bad news, though.

UK service sector companies created more jobs for the third month running in August, at the fastest rate since the start of 2016.

Markit: UK economy is losing momentum

Today’s service sector report, combined with earlier (strong) manufacturing and (weak) construction data for August, suggests that the UK economy will only grow by 0.3% this quarter.

Markit’s Chris Williamson says:

“A summer slowdown was evident in the economy as the August PMI surveys showed slower rates of expansion in services and construction offsetting an improved performance in the manufacturing sector. The resulting overall expansion was the weakest for six months.

Although the latest two months’ data put the economy on course for another 0.3% expansion in the third quarter, momentum is being gradually lost.

Williamson also warns that uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EU is hurting confidence:

“Robust manufacturing growth means the economy may be rebalancing towards goods production, aided by the weaker pound, but the slowdowns in services and construction send warning signals about the health of the economy.

“The overall level of optimism also remained subdued, mainly linked to Brexit uncertainty, close to levels that have previously been indicative of the economy stalling or even contracting.

Yesterday’s construction PMI suggested that Britain’s builders are close to recession, but Friday’s manufacturing PMI hit a seven-month high.

Customer-facing companies such as hotels, restaurants, cinemas, hairdressers and gyms suffered the weakest growth last month, Markit says.

UK service sector growth hits 11-month low

Breaking! In another blow to the UK economy, growth in its dominant services sector has fallen to its lowest rate in almost a year.

Data firm Markit reports that business activity in August rose at the weakest rate since last September.

Firms blamed “subdued client demand” and rising uncertainty about the UK economic outlook after seeing growth slow this year.

New order growth also slowed, with nervous clients holding back on spending decisions.

This pulled the UK services PMI down to 53.2, from 53.8 in July. Any reading over 50 shows growth.

More to follow....

Updated

Chris Bosworth, director of strategy at Close Brothers Motor Finance, says the drop in UK car sales in August isn’t a big surprise.

August is a notoriously testing month for new car registrations as consumers divert their spending toward family activities and holidays, so these figures shouldn’t come as a complete shock to the industry.

However, Britain’s exit from the EU is also casting a shadow over the sector, Bosworth adds:

“With Brexit negotiations well underway and the government announcing radical changes to the sale of fossil fuelled cars, the motor industry is entering a wave of prolonged uncertainty. This will likely have an impact on consumer spending habits. The Bank of England has already announced that car finance deals have eased as a result.

“In fact, 5.5 million British motorists say Brexit has already had a direct impact on their car purchasing plans and has made them more likely to purchase a used car or to hold off their purchase altogether – all of which can have a knock-on effect on the industry and the wider economy. That said, now that the new car registration plates have been released, we expect consumers will splash out on new cars over the next month, keeping in line with the annual trend.”

Diesel sales slide by 21%

Diesel bore the brunt of the sales decline in August, the SMMT says:

Demand for petrol hybrid and pure electric battery powered cars increased substantially, up 74.9% and 62.5%, while plug-in hybrid registrations rose 38.5%. Conventional petrols grew 3.8% and diesels fell -21.3%.

UK car sales fall for 5th month running

Breaking! Britain’s car industry has suffered its fifth monthly fall in sales.

New car registrations shrank by 6.4% in August, extending a sales decline that began in April and has fuelled worries over the UK economy.

It means that sales in 2017 are 2.4% lower than a year ago, with 1,640,241 new cars joining British roads since January.

The Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which compiled the report, reckons drivers are waiting for the latest number plates to arrive this month.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said,

August is typically a quiet month for the new car market as consumers and businesses delay purchases until the arrival of the new number plate in September. With the new 67-plate now available and a range of new models in showrooms, we anticipate the continuation of what are historically high levels of demand.

Just in: Growth across the eurozone’s service sector has hit a seven-month low, but remains robust.

Markit’s euro-area services PMI has come in at 54.7, down from July’s 55.4, and below the ‘flash reading’ of 54.9 released in late August.

Growth picked up in Ireland and Germany, but slowed in Italy, France and Spain.

Lego says its overall performance in the first half of 2017 was “mixed”, explaining why it is cutting so many jobs.

Revenues declined in established markets such as the United States and in parts of Europe, but it achieved double-digit growth in China

Here’s the topline:

  • Revenue down 5 percent to DKK 14.9 billion compared with DKK 15.7 billion
  • Operating profit down 6 percent to DKK 4.4 billion compared with DKK 4.7 billion
  • Net profit down 3 percent at DKK 3.4 billion compared with DKK 3.5 billion

Crumbs. Lego is planning to cut around 1,400 jobs, after suffering a 5% drop in revenues this year.

In a statement, LEGO Group Chairman Jørgen Vig Knudstorp says:

“We are disappointed by the decline in revenue in our established markets, and we have taken steps to address this.

Those steps include sweeping job cuts, that will reduce its global workforce of 18,200 by around 8%.

Most of the 1,400 positions will be cut before the end of the year.

Knudstorp adds:

“We are very sorry to make changes which may interfere with the lives of many of our colleagues. Our colleagues put so much passion into their work every day and we are deeply grateful for that.

Unfortunately, it is essential for us to make these tough decisions.”

Lego revenues fall 5%

Bad news from the bricks economy....

Enigmatically, Lego adds:

The Group now prepares to reset the company to deliver on its long-term ambition to reach more children all over the world with LEGO® experiences.

Updated

Reuters: UK car sales are down again

Oh dear. Reuters is reporting that UK car sales took another fall in August.

They’ve crunched through some ‘preliminary data’, and report demand declined for the fifth month in a row.:

British new car sales fell by between 6 and 7 percent year-on-year in August, according to preliminary data released by an industry body on Tuesday.

New car registrations have fallen year-on-year in April, May, June and July, the longest run of declines since 2011, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers andTraders (SMMT).

The SMMT will publish full data for the month of August at 0800 GMT [9am BST].

August was a rough month for Indian companies, it appears.

New tax changes and the controversial demonetization policy both hurt growth, according to the latest PMI reports.

The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index hit 47.5 in August, up from July’s 45.9, but still showing a contraction.

Markit, which compiles the survey, says India’s new Goods and Services Tax (GST) - which replaced a swath of local taxes - hurt spending.

Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at IHS Markit warns;

“The underlying trend for services is one of uncertainty. Businesses are holding back on investment, leading to falls in employment. At the same time, input costs are increasing and firms are unable to fully pass these on due to competitive pressures. It’s not all doom and gloom, however, as activity, new business and employment showed much slower rates of reduction than those noted in the prior survey period.”

Chinese service sector growth hits three-month high

China’s private sector is growing at its fastest rate in six months, according to new data released overnight.

Data firm Caixin reported that, in August, Chinese business activity expanded at the fastest rate since February.

Factories and service sector firms both reported a pick-up in demand, thanks to improving market conditions and a rise in new orders.

It may mean that Beijing’s attempts to avoid a sharp slowdown are paying off.

Caixin reports that:

  • Services activity growth strengthens to three-month high, while manufacturing output grows modestly
  • New orders increase at faster pace at both service providers and goods producers
  • Inflationary pressures build further

And this pushed its Composite Output Index up to 52.4, up from 51.9 in July.

Dr Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group warns, though, that firms are facing higher costs:

The recovery in both manufacturing and services has led the economic outlook to continue to improve. But we need to closely watch whether the recent rises in input costs will weigh on corporate profits and fuel inflation.”

The agenda: Service sector data

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we get a flurry of service data from around the world will show how the global economy fared last month.

Britain’s service sector contributes around 80% of the nation’s output, so the UK services PMI will be closely watched.

Economists predict that growth held up OK in August, although after yesterday’s weak construction data (growth at a one-year low!) a negative surprise can’t be ruled out.

The City is confident that Britain’s services PMI will beat the 50-point mark that splits expansion from contraction, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

In July we saw a nice uptick to 53.8, after a bit of a slowdown in June, and it is expected that we might see some softening in August back to 53.5, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if we did outperform, particularly in areas that support travel, leisure and tourism.

Europe’s service sector is likely to notch up another strong month of growth, with the eurozone PMI expected to hit 54.9.

We also get new UK car sales this morning, for August. Sales have fallen for the last four months, and there are fears they could still be dropping....

The markets look quiet this morning, after dipping yesterday amid worries over North Korea.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is expected to rise by a modest 8 points, with traders hopeful that military action can be avoided.

Americans will be getting back to work (and pushing their white outfits to the back of the closet) after yesterday’s Labor Day holiday. Several Federal Reserve policy makers are due to speak, and may give hints on when US interest rates may next rise.

Here’s the agenda:

  • 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for August
  • 9am BST: UK car sales for August
  • 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for August
  • 10am BST: Eurozone retail sales for August
  • 3pm BST: US factory orders for July

Updated

 

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