Ken Livingstone's prediction that motorists would abandon their cars in favour of radically improved buses has been proved wrong, with the tube taking much of the strain instead.
London Underground estimated this week that congestion charging was pushing 17,000 extra passengers a day on to its overcrowded network - roughly equivalent to two extra people a carriage.
Meanwhile, Transport for London has admitted that just 6,000 extra passengers are taking the bus during the morning rush hour, compared with a forecast of 7,175 in its "readiness report" last year.
According to LU, the biggest increase in tube use, a 5.8% rise from 10am to 1pm, has been at stations in the south west areas of central London, such as South Kensington, Knightsbridge, Gloucester Road and Earls Court - which are in the tube's central fare zone, but outside the congestion charging boundary.
LU said: "It is likely that in the off-peak period people are driving to park in that area and then taking the tube from there."
An LU spokeswoman said the increase was manageable, given that the network already handles 3 million passengers a day. However, Victoria station, which staff often had to shut due to rush hour overcrowding even before the charge was introduced, is seeing a worrying 5% increase in passengers.
The potential for extra strain on the tube was highlighted by a London Assembly report in February.
John Biggs, Labour vice-chairman of the assembly's transport committee, said yesterday: "This was fairly inevitable - psychologically, there's a transport hierarchy. Buses are held as a fairly low status form of transport; tubes are seen as more reliable."
Those who are taking the buses are enjoying a quicker and more spacious ride. TfL has laid on 7,500 extra bus seats each morning rush hour since the autumn. The authority says the average waiting time at bus stops for routes into the charging zone has fallen from six minutes to five minutes.
Colin Farrant, commercial manager for Go-Ahead Group's London bus arm, said smoother traffic had allowed more buses to complete their routes without turning around early. "There has definitely been a difference inside the central zone.
"Previously, many buses were unable to complete their mileage because of traffic congestion. Now they are able to do the full journey."
Faster journeys have prompted operators to review their schedules, amid complaints that buses are running early. In some cases, operators have abandoned traditional timetables in favour of a "once every 10 minutes" pattern, advising passengers not to expect services at a particular time.
