Jasper Jolly 

US economy grows faster than expected as Trump announces 25% tariffs on India – as it happened

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as world’s biggest economy grows at 3% annualised rate in data distorted by trade wars
  
  

A customer looks at over-the-counter medicines
A customer at a Costco Wholesale store in Washington. A rise in consumer spending helped the US economy to grow. Photograph: Michael Reynolds/EPA

Closing summary: Stronger US GDP figures, but weaker underlying growth

It is a stronger-than-expected US GDP reading, but it does not quite paint the picture that the headline numbers might suggest – or indeed the picture that Donald Trump believes.

US GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, but that reading was distorted the numbers.

Trump’s tariffs caused a big surge in first-quarter imports (by definition depressing the GDP reading) and a big drop in imports in the second quarter (which artificially boosted it.

Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, said:

Don’t be fooled. Underlying growth was weak in the second quarter and took a material step down in the first half of this year compared to 2024.

Underlying growth in the second quarter may be around 0.5%, Allen said.

We think a GDP print close to that pace is likely in the third quarter, given the mounting headwinds for the economy, and we see growth remaining weak in the fourth quarter too.

But do not expect the Federal Reserve to try to stimulate further economic growth. It would be a shock if it did anything other than leave interest rates on hold at its announcement later today, and the timing for a first rate cut is uncertain.

Lindsay James, a strategist at Quilter, an investment manager, said:

With tariffs still a threat to the future path of inflation, despite the recent run of CPI coming in lower than expected, and an economy that remains to hold up against all the pressures it faces, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to resist pressure to cut interest rates until there is a greater clarity about how shifting global trade dynamics will ultimately impact consumers wallets.

Until the economy obviously rolls over and struggles, Trump will be left waiting for his long desired interest rate cuts.

You can continue to follow our live coverage from around the world:

Thank you as ever for following today. Join me again tomorrow morning for European market reaction to tonight’s Federal Reserve announcement. JJ

Updated

The US dollar has strengthened against the euro, leaving the European currency at a five-week low.

The dollar has depreciated markedly during 2025, partly as a result of Donald Trump’s upending of the global trading system making US assets relatively less attractive. However, that trend has reversed in the last week.

The euro was down by 0.8% on Wednesday afternoon, as investors adjust to the expectation of higher US interest rates (which tend to result in currency appreciation).

Depop, the London-based secondhand clothing marketplace, is on track for $1bn of annual sales for the first time, its owner Etsy has said, after a 35% surge in sales to $250m in the three months to 30 June.

The company said growth was driven by a 54% jump in sales in the US as it signed up a record number of new shoppers.

Growth at the business reflects a surge in interest in ‘pre-loved’ clothing in recent years with rival Vinted reporting a 41% rise in sales to almost €813m for 2024 with profits almost tripling to €95.4m after the company stepped out of the red for the first time in 2023.

The strong sales at Depop were revealed as its parent group reported a near 5% drop in sales to $2.8bn in the quarter as it saw a decrease in active buyers at its main Etsy marketplace, which focuses on handmade and bespoke products. Net profits for the group dived $24m to £29m, largely because of a loss on exchange rates.

The company did not say if it had been affected by changes in the US tax regime under which imported items worth less than $800 being sent direct to consumers must now pay import tax.

Wall Street shares are pretty flat at the start of trading on Wednesday in New York.

Here are the opening snaps, via Reuters:

  • S&P 500 UP 4.84 POINTS, OR 0.08%, AT 6,375.70

  • NASDAQ UP 40.33 POINTS, OR 0.19%, AT 21,138.63

  • DOW JONES UP 14.09 POINTS, OR 0.03%, AT 44,647.08

Donald Trump is exhibiting an… unorthodox approach to monetary policy.

In a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns, Trump argued that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates because of faster-than-expected growth.

That is the exact opposite of how the vast majority of economists think about interest rate changes: they usually consider higher interest rates when economies grow faster, in order to prevent inflationary pressure building.

Trump posted:

2Q GDP JUST OUT: 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! “Too Late” MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE. No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!

It is not the first time a world leader has gone for unorthodox monetary policy theories: Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, argued for a period that higher interest rates cause inflation. That theory did not gain much traction.

The US economy is still growing under Donald Trump’s presidency, but at a slower rate than last year under Joe Biden. Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg, an investment bank, said:

Since the start of the year, US economic activity has expanded by 1.2% annualised, much slower than last year’s odds-defying first-half performance of 2.3% annualised. This softer growth path will likely persist – courtesy of slower immigration, trade wars and an uncertain macro environment.

But for future interest rate decisions the Federal Reserve is likely to deprioritise the GDP figures in favour of the jobs data due to be released on Friday. Bakiskan again:

Given the lag and the noisy signal it sends, GDP will remain in the backseat. The Fed will stay focused on what sits in the front seat - the holy grail nonfarm payroll data - to assess the health of the US economy. That has so far proved resilient so far and should remain so on Friday. With only a few hours left until the Fed decision, which is all but guaranteed to be a hold, today’s GDP report will not change the narrative of a slowing but not stalled US economy.

There are signs of weakness in the US economy below the surface of the faster-than-expected second-quarter growth, according to Thomas Ryan, a North America economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy.

He wrote:

The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying development was that growth in sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to just 1.2%, its weakest since late 2022.

Net trade swung from a 4.6%-point drag on first-quarter GDP growth to providing a 5.0%-point boost last quarter, driven by a sharp drop in imports as firms shifted from front running tariffs to working through existing stockpiles.

Consumption growth did accelerate – albeit to a slower pace than previous years. Ryan said that the consumption growth “demonstrates that all the tariff uncertainty last quarter did not lead to consumers retrenching entirely”.

With consumption posting a moderate gain, private sales to domestic purchasers, often seen as the best indicator of underlying economic strength, rose by 1.2% despite the weakness in investment.

Stock market futures indicate that US share indices are likely to rise at the opening bell.

S&P 500 futures prices are up by 0.1%, while futures for the tech-focused Nasdaq are up 0.2%.

The US economic data will surely play into the Fed’s decision for later: even with trade distortions, they buttress the argument that the US economy does not need further support – whatever the thoughts of Donald Trump on the matter.

Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, a fund manager, said:

As expected, the US economy bounced back strongly in the second quarter, much more than expected, after contracting in the first quarter ahead of the imposition of tariffs. With inflation above target, tariffs about to kick in and the economy looking in reasonable shape, there is virtually no chance of the Fed acting on rates before September, no matter what the President would like them to do.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in an announcement later today, despite an onslaught of attacks from the White House against the central bank.

The Fed’s federal open market committee (FOMC) has eight opportunities a year to change interest rates during its scheduled two-day meetings. While the FOMC decreased rates three times in the fall, bringing rates down a full percentage point, it left rates unchanged after its last four meetings. Interest rates currently sit at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

Trump is partly to blame for the pause in rate cuts. Fed officials say that the economy has become too unstable to change rates. The Fed has to strike a delicate balance between its “dual mandate”, keeping both unemployment and inflation low. Though the economy was strong at the beginning of the year, Trump’s long slate of tariffs have started to creep into prices, bringing inflation up from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in June.

On Wednesday, executives at the consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble said tariffs were “inherently inflationary” and that US consumers were “under some level of stress” and that the company, long a bellwether of consumer sentiment, was experiencing slowing sales in the US and Europe.

You can read the full report here:

There is a big caveat to the US economy’s fast headline growth: it is still being distorted by the big swings in American trade – exemplified by Donald Trump’s announcement a few minutes before to impose steep 25% tariffs on India.

Imports surged in the first quarter, and then fell sharply in the second quarter. And imports count against GDP (to avoid double counting between different countries – even if imports are useful to that country). The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said:

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.

US economy grows at 3% annually, faster than expected

The US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025, according to data which make even more distant the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut any time soon.

US GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annualised GDP growth of 2.4%, after a surprise contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter as exporters rushed to get their products into the country ahead of tariffs. Imports count against a country’s GDP.

US to impose 25% tariffs on India says Trump

The US will impose tariff of 25% on India, with Donald Trump criticising the world’s fifth-biggest economy for “obnoxious” trade barriers.

Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns:

While India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country.

The share price of BAE Systems, Britain’s dominant weapons maker, is down 3.6% today, despite upgrading its sales and profit forecasts for the year thanks to the huge increases in military spending planned by the UK and its allies.

BAE Systems will not be worrying hugely about the share price dip: its shares are still up by 52% during 2025.

BAE has benefited from government spending on the next-generation Tempest fighter jet, due to fly by 2030. The company has also said that it is close to securing further orders for the Typhoon fighter jets that it already builds.

On the Typhoon orders, Charles Woodburn, BAE’s chief executive, said:

There’s definitely interest. But it’s hard to put a timeframe on when those potential next buys might come through.

There is little sign of a slowdown in sales demand, and a threat to its work on the US-made F-35 fighter jet programme was lifted after activists failed in a challenge to UK involvement. The government successfully argued that exports took precedence over the need to comply with UK laws on arms export controls, or any UK obligation to prevent an alleged genocide in Israel.

Woodburn said it was a “strong operational and financial performance in the first half of the year, giving us the confidence to upgrade our guidance”.

Reuters reported that Woodburn declined to comment on whether BAE was in talks with Boeing and Sweden’s Saab about teaming up on a future replacement for Britain’s Hawk trainer jet, after an earlier report.

Updated

Toyota halts operations amid tsunami precautions after reporting record sales

The tsunami warnings have thankfully been downgraded in Japan and Hawaii – although other warnings are still in place around the Pacific.

Japan’s Toyota has said that it halted operations at 14 lines in eight plants in Japan, although it will decide whether to restart work as soon as Wednesday evening, according to Nikkei.

It came after the company bucked the global trend of carmakers reporting falling sales: its output and sales reached a new record in the first half of 2025 – thanks in part to its focus on hybrid cars that combine a battery with a petrol or diesel engine.

The company did not reveal any financial figures, although it has previously said that it is less exposed to the US tariff turmoil than some rivals because it aims to produce its cars in the markets where it sells – including within the US.

Reuters reported:

The world’s biggest automaker’s global sales for January-June grew 5.5% year on year to more than 5.1m vehicles, supported by demand for hybrid vehicles, which accounted for about 43% of its worldwide sales over the period.

Toyota has remained committed to hybrids much more than rivals, which has left it in a good place financially as pure electric sales have hit something of a plateau in growth. At the same time, some analysts argue that the company will be left behind in the race to produce the best electric vehicles.

Updated

Adidas has had a knock-on effect across the trainers world: in the UK, FTSE 100 retailer JD Sports is down 2.5% today after the German shoemaker missed its sales estimates.

However, David Hughes, an analyst at Shore Capital, an investment bank, said JD Sports investors should take heart from the Adidas growth in revenues in the quarter – despite the hit from tariffs.

He wrote that lower levels of discounting and higher full-price sell-through by Adidas were “another sign of strength in the ath-leisure market”. He added:

The growth delivered in the first half gives us more confidence in the strength of the ath-leisure market and in JD’s prospects for a revenue turnaround.

Adidas warns of €200m extra production costs from Trump tariffs

Trump’s US import tariffs are expected to cost Adidas up to €200m more on production costs in the rest of this year as it warned the new tax regime could hit demand if it prompted “major inflation”.

The German footwear brand, known for its three-stripe logo, makes most of its product in China and the far east which have targeted by the new US tariff regime and has already warned that prices are likely to have to rise in the US.

On Wednesday Bjørn Gulden, the chief executive of Adidas, said the group was holding its profit forecast of between €1.7bn and €1.8bn, up from €1.3bn last year, but indicated that was under pressure. He said:

We currently feel confident to deliver it, but of course this might change – also upwards should headwinds be less than we currently assume.

The year has started great for us and normally we would now be very bullish in our outlook for the full year. We feel the volatility and uncertainty in the world does not make this prudent.

The company said that the imposition of tariffs had already cost it more than €10m in extra production costs and this figure would continue to rise.

“We still do not know what the final tariffs in the US will be” he said, adding “We do also not know what the indirect impact on consumer demand will be should all these tariffs cause major inflation.”

Gulden made the comments as Adidas revealed sales of the brand increase 12% in the second quarter of the year to €6bn. Operating profit rose 58% to €546m as the company, which is bouncing back after being forced to shut down its lucratrive Yeezy collaboration with with Kanye West in 2022, said it had reduced discounting.

Gulden said the pace of growth had risen towards the end of the period. The brand is currently outperforming its major rival Nike with both new versions of its vintage footwear styles – such as an animal print Samba that proved particularly popular with women – and its running shoes in demand.

Britain’s clean energy future risks creating “winners and losers” if lower-income households are not shielded from the costs added to energy bills to pay for it, the head of the energy regulator has said.

Jonathan Brearley, Ofgem’s chief executive, said a “systematic approach” to sharing the rising costs of the government’s green power ambitions was needed to avoid poorer households facing soaring monthly payments.

The regulator for Great Britain launched a root-and-branch review on Wednesday into how the costs of upgrading the energy networks can be recovered through home energy bills in a way that is fairer.

The review could include plans to cut standing charges for lower-income households while wealthier customers pay a higher cost for upgrading the energy system.

You can read the full report here:

UK housebuilder Taylor Wimpey sets aside £222m to fix cladding

The biggest faller on the FTSE 100 is Taylor Wimpey, which is down by 5% after it revealed a £222m provision to fix potentially dangerous cladding.

Eight years after the Grenfell Tower fire killed 72 people, the housebuilder said that it had found more materials within the walls of older buildings that needed to be replaced because of potential fire safety risks ahead of a UK government deadline.

In response to the Grenfell Tower fire, the government has sought to make developers pay to replace unsuitable cladding. Legislation will require landlords of buildings 18m or more in height with unsafe cladding to complete remediation by the end of 2029, and landlords of buildings 11-18m in height to complete remediation by the end of 2031.

£145m of the cost to Taylor Wimpey related to “an expanded scope of works to remediate historical building defects, relating to cavity barriers behind brickwork and render”. Those cavity barriers were not visible without “intrusive investigations” – removing the outer layer of bricks or cladding to see what was inside.

Another £40m was for cladding that had previously been judged as acceptable, plus £38m for other costs relating to the changes.

Jennie Daly, Taylor Wimpey’s chief executive, said:

The safety of our customers remains our highest priority – this principle has consistently guided our approach, and we have increased our cladding fire safety provision to reflect findings from updated fire risk assessments and investigations in the first half.

The company also warned that cladding remediation costs represent a key source of uncertainty.

The Eurozone economy has grown by 0.1% – marginally better than the expectation of zero growth from economists.

The reading was marginally better than expected in part thanks to faster-than-expected growth in France, the second-largest economy in the EU.

Still, it was a slowdown compared with the 0.6% growth in the first quarter. Some economists have put down that acceleration to companies trying to get ahead of US tariffs by making more products and racing to get exports into the country before the levies took effect.

Economists had expected a lull in demand in the spring during a payback period.

It is not just tariffs that are causing problems for Aston Martin Lagonda: the British manufacturer issued a profit warning on Wednesday blaming trade disruption, but also the slump in demand for luxury cars in China.

Adrian Hallmark, Aston Martin’s chief executive, said:

China is a big problem child – no question.

The market for luxury vehicles in China remains extremely subdued.

Chinese demand for luxury cars – and other luxury products such as watches, fine wine and clothing – has been hit by the long-running turmoil in the country’s property market, but also by a political turn away from symbols of excess in the nominally communist country.

Aston Martin had previously said it expected to generate an operating profit, but on Wednesday said that operating profits were only “expected to improve towards breakeven”.

The company said sales in China were broadly flat compared with last year, “reflecting a continued weak macroeconomic environment which is leading to supressed demand and [which] is expected to continue at least in the near-term”.

Germany's economy shrank 0.1% in second quarter of 2025

The German economy shrank by 0.1% in the spring of 2025, as companies adjusted to the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Germany is the EU’s largest economy and biggest exporter, so its growth figures are crucial in determining the rate of growth in the eurozone – data expected at 10am BST.

Economists had expected the decline in output. The country’s federal statistics agency also revised down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%.

You can see the tale of Germany’s struggling economy since the coronavirus pandemic in the below chart: note that GDP is below 2022 levels.

It came after France’s economy, Europe’s second-largest, significantly outperformed expectations. French GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary data.

That was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth – and higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Nicholas Farr, Emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, also said that the economies of Hungary and Czechia “have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April”, according to data published on Wednesday.

Hungary’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the quarters, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. The Czech economy performed a bit worse; growth slowed from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.2%.

The first waves have hit Hawaii after a powerful magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka peninsula and triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific.

You can follow updates on the tsunami warnings here:

The evacuations are of course affecting businesses in the affected areas, including in Japan. Reuters reported:

Automaker Nissan Motor suspended operations at certain domestic factories in Japan to ensure employee safety, Kyodo news agency reported. Three tsunami waves had been recorded in Japan, the largest of 1.3 metres, officials said. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said there were no injuries or damage reported so far, and no irregularities at any nuclear plants.

Updated

Porsche has been heavily hit by the US tariffs, but the German sportscar maker has not yet decided to shift production to America.

The carmaker’s chief financial officer, Jochen Breckner, has told reporters this morning that the company is are observing the tariff situation and how the market responds, but there is currently no US production planned, Reuters reported.

Breckner said the EU-US trade deal is good for planning security but burdens Porsche’s business model. Porsche does most of its production in Germany.

The FTSE 100 has dropped 0.5% in the opening trades on Wednesday.

Germany’s Dax is down 0.2%, while France’s Cac 40 has dropped 0.15%. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%.

HSBC profits fell 29% in second quarter amid Chinese bank and property woes

HSBC’s profits fell by a more-than-expected 29% between April and June as its exposure to a Chinese bank and Hong Kong’s troubled commercial real estate sector took its toll.

The London-headquartered bank said it took a $2.1bn (£1.6bn) hit related to its investment in China’s fifth largest lender, Bank of Communications (BoCom), which was diluted as a result of a recapitalisation plan meant to offset the effects of a sluggish Chinese economy and struggling property sector.

The boss of the bank joined a growing chorus of bankers cautioning Rachel Reeves against increasing taxes on banks in her autumn budget, warning it risked “eroding” investment and ultimately harming UK growth.

Chief executive Georges Elhedery said that banks in the UK already subject to the highest level of taxes on profits compared to any other sector, and paid more taxes in the UK compared to most other countries. He said placing further financial pressures on lenders could spell trouble for the local economy.

Elhedery told journalists on Wednesday:

Additional taxation on banks does run the risk of eroding our continued investment capacity in in the business and in supporting our customers, and ultimately in delivering growth for the UK.

Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Aston Martin count steep cost of US tariffs

Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

Car companies around the world are laying out the cost of Donald Trump’s trade war, with Mercedes-Benz saying tariffs will cost it €362m (£313m) while German sportscar maker Porsche saying it would cost €400m.

British sportscar manufacturer Aston Martin Lagonda also said that it cut production and limited exports to the US to try to limit the financial impact.

The Trump administration raised tariffs of 27.5% on car imports from the EU and UK, causing chaos for German and British carmakers – although the EU trade deal will cut that to 15%, while the UK has secured a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 exports.

Mercedes-Benz said the tariffs were “causing great uncertainty”, and had hit sales, which dropped 9% year-on-year to 453,700 units in the second quarter. Reuters reported that Mercedes said tariffs would cut profits by about 1.5 percentage points, equivalent to a tariff effect of €362m on the division’s adjusted operating profit.

Ola Källenius, Mercedes-Benz’s chief executive, said:

We achieved robust financial results in the second quarter given the dynamic business environment. The best response is to stay on course to deliver desirable and intelligent products, while keeping a tight grip on costs.

Porsche said the introduction of increased US import tariffs resulted in additional costs of €400m in the first half of the year as the company protected customers from price increases.

The effect of Trump’s trade war was also evident in the UK, where Aston Martin was forced to cut back production and run down stocks at US dealers in order to avoid the tariffs of 27.5%. Those have now been reduced to 10% under the UK’s trade deal with the US – although only for the first 100,000 exports on a first-come, first-served basis.

Adrian Hallmark, Aston Martin’s chief executive, said:

The evolving and disruptive US tariff situation was unhelpful to our operations in the second quarter. In response, we adjusted production and limited imports through April and May while awaiting confirmation of a trade agreement between the UK and the US, leveraging existing inventory held by our US dealers in that period.

We resumed shipments to the US in June in anticipation of a finalised agreement which came into effect on 30 June 2025. We continue to actively engage the UK government to urge them to improve the quota mechanism to ensure fair access for the whole UK car industry to the 10% rate on an ongoing basis.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: Germany GDP growth rate (second quarter; previous: 0.4%; consensus: -0.1%)

  • 9am BST: Italy GDP growth rate (second quarter; prev.: 0.3%; consensus: 0.2%)

  • 10am BST: Eurozone GDP growth rate (second quarter; prev.: 0.6%; consensus: 0%)

  • 10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment index (July; prev.: 94 points; consensus: 94.5)

  • 1:30pm BST: US GDP growth rate (second quarter annualised; prev.: -0.5%; consensus: 2.4%)

Updated

 

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