Angela Monaghan 

UK car production heads for first annual fall since financial crisis – as it happened

The number of cars made in UK factories fell 2% in the first 11 months of the year, putting the industry on course for its first annual fall in production since 2009, when Britain was in the depths of the financial crisis
  
  

Nissan’s car manufacturing plant in Sunderland. The number of cars made in UK factories and destined for the UK market slumped 28% in November
Nissan’s car manufacturing plant in Sunderland. The number of cars made in UK factories and destined for the UK market slumped 28% in November Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

That’s all for today. Thank you for following the blog and for all your comments. Please join us again tomorrow morning. AM

Thousand of UK Toys R Us jobs are saved

Before closing up for the day, some good news from Toys R Us where about 2,000 jobs are expected to be saved.

The news follows an eleventh hour solution after the ailing retailer agreed to pump more than £9m into its pension plan over the next two years in a last-minute deal with the state-backed pensions lifeboat. Without the deal, the retailer would probably have gone into administration.

The Pension Protection Fund joined landlords and other creditors in backing Toys R Us’s voluntary insolvency (CVA) plan, which involves the closure of at least 26 loss-making stores from next spring as well as reducing the size of others. Consultations with affected employees will commence in the new year.

While up to 800 people could still lose their job as a result of the restructure, more than 2,000 jobs will be saved as Toys R Us tries to turn its remaining UK business around.

Read the full story here:

Balraj Sroya, trader at Foenix Partners, gives his take on US GDP for the third quarter, which was revised down to an annual rate of 3.2%.

US GDP is still on track for Trump to keep to his campaign promise of 3% GDP for 2017 even as Q3 missed forecast projections. The GDP print came out lower than consensus at 3.2%, with the blame placed on weaker consumer spending.

With the GOP tax bill being passed earlier in the week, Republicans are expecting the changes in tax code will see wages increasing and the average consumer having more disposable income.

Once the fourth quarter growth figure is released, investors will be keen to see if Trump actually delivered on his pledge and whether the effects of the biggest tax reform in 30 years is beneficial for growth.

US jobless claims rise

There were 245,000 new US jobless claims in the latest week, more than the previous week and more than the 231,000 predicted by economists.

US growth downgraded for Q3

The US economy grew by an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, slightly slower than the 3.3% estimated previously.

Despite the downgrade, it was the quickest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2015 and an improvement on the 3.1% growth in the second quarter.

FTSE outperforms in afternoon trading

The FTSE 100 is up 35 points and outperforming its major European peers this afternoon, as investors remain fairly subdued.

The latest scores:

  • FTSE 100: +0.5% at 7,560
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 13,057
  • France’s CAC: flat at 5,352
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: flat at 22,113
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.1% at 10,197
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.1% at 389

Candy brothers win high court battle

Billionaire property developers the Candy brothers have won a bruising high court battle after a judge dismissed all claims brought against them by a former friend for extortion, blackmail, intimidation and breach of the data protection act.

Read our full story here:

Labour's McDonnell: public finance figures are 'bad news'

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has given his take on this morning’s public finances figures, which showed borrowing fell in November.

He says they are another reminder of broken Tory promises:

These figures are further bad news just before Christmas following on from the IMF’s gloomy outlook issued yesterday. They only remind us yet again of the broken Tory promises to eliminate the deficit by 2015. The national debt continues to grow despite the tricks the Chancellor attempted in his Budget last month with Housing Association debt to hide his failure on the economy. This continued failure by the Tory Government over these past seven years is simply unacceptable.

These figures today reaffirm why we need an urgent change of course next year, halting the growing emergency in our public services and ending the failed Tory austerity cuts.

The next Labour government will set out a serious plan for the public finances with strategic investment underpinned by our fiscal credibility rule, to help build a high-wage, high-skill economy for the many not the few.

Updated

John Hawksworth, chief economist at the accountancy firm PwC, takes a look at some of the detail in the November public finances data:

Public borrowing in November was broadly unchanged from last year, but for the financial year to date the budget deficit is running around £3 billion less than in the same period last year. This reflects central government receipts growing at around 4%, while central government spending has only been rising at around 3%. VAT, income tax, national insurance and stamp duty revenues have all been growing at a reasonable rate so far this year.

As the OBR has indicated, however, self-assessment receipts in early 2018 may be less strong than in early 2017, so today’s figures still leave public borrowing on track to come in at around £50 billion in 2017/18 as a whole.

Further progress on reducing the budget deficit may be slow over the next couple of years as Brexit-related uncertainty drags on UK growth, which we expect to lag some way behind both the US and the Eurozone in 2018 and 2019.

However, the deficit is no longer at the dangerous levels reached immediately after the financial crisis, so the Chancellor can afford to take his time in making further progress towards his long-term objective of budget balance. For the moment, the greater priority is to provide short term support to the economy during the Brexit process and to fund much needed investment in housing, transport infrastructure and the NHS.

The Treasury has responded to the latest public finances figures, seizing on the fact that borrowing in the fiscal year so far is the lowest since 2007.

A spokesperson said:

This is the best year-to-date borrowing in a decade, but there is still further to go to repair the public finances.

We continue to build an economy fit for the future by taking a balanced approach, getting debt falling while investing in our vital public services and keeping taxes low.

Plunging car figures show UK is in the 'slow lane', union says

The jewel in Britain’s manufacturing crown is at risk because of Brexit uncertainty and falling wages according to Britain’s largest union, Unite.

The latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders show the number of cars made in British factories destined for the UK market plunged 28% in November to 24,276. It was the fourth month in a row that cars built for the home market fell.

Tony Burke, Unite assistant general secretary, said it was terrible news for Britain:

This is awful news in the run-up to Christmas for the British car industry and the UK economy. The continued falling demand in the UK market because of Brexit uncertainty and falling wages is yet more evidence of the government’s economic incompetence.

When other economies around the world are motoring ahead, the UK is stuck in the slow lane hobbled by the biggest squeeze in wages since the Napoleonic era. Meanwhile uncertainty around Brexit is leaving motor manufacturers stalling on the investment needed to maintain Britain’s world leading status in car making.

The motor industry is the jewel in the UK’s manufacturing crown, sustaining communities with decent well paid jobs. Government ministers need to rid themselves of their economic complacency and tackle falling incomes which are putting people’s wallets and the UK economy into reverse.

Government borrowing falls in November

The UK government borrowed £8.7bn last month, which was £200m less than the same month last year and the lowest November net borrowing since 2007, on the eve of the financial crisis.

It was lower than the £8.9bn predicted by economists. The figure for October was also revised down, to £7.8bn from £8bn, topping off some decent news for the chancellor, Philip Hammond.

Borrowing in the fiscal year so far (April to November) was £48.1bn, down £3.1bn on the same period last year, and also the lowest since 2007.

It puts the chancellor on course to meet the Office for Budget Responsibility’s expectation that full-year borrowing to the end of March 2018 will be £49.9bn.

January usually brings a big surplus when annual income tax bills are due.

The figures were boosted by the Office for National Statistics’ decision to reclassify housing associations as private rather than public sector for the first time this month. This is estimated to have pushed down borrowing by about £300m.

Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, says she isn’t getting “too carried away” by the figures:

While a continuation of the current trend would see borrowing undershoot the OBR’s forecast by £7bn, some deterioration in the public finances should occur towards the end of the fiscal year. In particular, strong self-assessment tax receipts collected in January and February 2017 – due to changes in the dividend tax rate – won’t be repeated.

As a result, we doubt that borrowing will come in significantly below the OBR’s current £49.9 forecast for the 2017/18 fiscal year. However, if we are right in thinking that the OBR is too gloomy about the prospects for GDP growth, then borrowing should come down at a faster rate than it expects further ahead.

Alex Buttle, director at the car comparison website, motorway.co.uk, is downbeat about prospects for Britain’s car industry:

This is a stunning fall in domestic demand and pretty much sums up the last six months for an industry reeling from punitive diesel taxes and crumbling consumer confidence.

The fact that manufacturing levels fell just 4.6% last month, when domestic demand dropped off a cliff, shows just how reliant we are on exports. And that’s probably more worrying than faltering demand, as right now we have no EU trade agreement and zero clarity over trading agreements with countries outside the EU.

The UK car industry is teetering on the edge, and the economic landscape is unlikely to improve in 2018 with Brexit uncertainty ramped up to another level.

UK car manufacturing on course for first annual fall in 8 years

The number of cars made in UK factories in the first 11 months of the year was 2% lower than over the same period in 2016, at 1.58m vehicles.

If the weak trend persists in December, UK car production will have suffered its first annual fall since 2009, when Britain was in the depths of the financial crisis. In that year, production plunged 31% to 999,460 cars.

UK house builders fall after ground rent clampdown

Britain’s listed house builders are among the FTSE 100’s biggest fallers this morning:

It follows the government’s decision to go further than expected by forcing developers to ban controversial ground rents for all new apartments and houses.

Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, also said the government would go ahead with a ban on leaseholds on new-build houses, first announced in July.

Updated

European markets lack festive cheer

European investors are in no mood to celebrate this morning, with the major markets following Wall Street lower.

It turns out the markets are not as ecstatic about the successful passage of Donald Trump’s as the President himself.

Here are the latest scores:

  • FTSE 100: flat at 7,526
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.4% at 13,019
  • France’s CAC: -0.5% at 5,324
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3% at 22,050
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.6% at 10,148
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.4% at 387

UK consumers gloomy in December

UK consumer confidence fell again in December according to the latest monthly snapshot from GfK.

The index fell by one point to -13, marking almost two years of declining consumer confidence.

GfK’s Joe Staton said there was nothing to suggest the mood among UK households would pick up any time soon:

We need to see several issues move on before the downward trend of the consumer mood changes. We need to have a better sense of how Brexit will pan out, and also of how quickly and how far interest rates will rise. But none of this will be resolved quickly so there’s every likelihood that 2018 will take us lower.

Garry White, chief investment commentator at Charles Stanley, has found something to be cheerful about in the UK car market:

UK car manufacturing is on course to fall in 2017 overall.

In the first 11 months of the year, a total of 1.58m cars rolled off UK production lines, down 2% compared with the same point in 2016.

Vehicles destined for the UK market were down 9% over the period, to 322,551, while those destined for export markets were roughly flat at 1.25m.

The agenda: UK car production slumps

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

November was another poor month for Britain’s car industry, which has been hit by falling demand in 2017 as consumers faced with Brexit uncertainty and falling real pay become less willing to splash out on big purchases.

The number of cars made in British factories last month and destined for the UK market plunged 28% to 24,276 according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It was the fourth month in a row of falling domestic demand, and the biggest drop of 2017.

There was however a 1.3% rise in cars made in the UK and destined for export markets, as other economies fare better than Britain. Cars built to be shipped abroad totalled 137,214 and accounted for 85% of the total.

Overall, car production fell 4.6% in November, as 161,490 cars left UK factories.

The figures underline just how reliant on foreign trade the UK car industry is.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said:

Brexit uncertainty, coupled with confusion over diesel taxation and air quality plans, continues to impact domestic demand for new cars and, with it, production output. Whilst it is good to see exports grow in November, this only reinforces how overseas demand remains the driving force for UK car manufacturing.

Clarity on the nature of our future overseas trading relationships, including details on transition arrangements with the EU, is vital for future growth and success.

Also coming up today:

  • 9.30 GMT: UK public finances data will show how much money the government had to borrow in November
  • 1.30pm GMT: The third estimate of US GDP in the third quarter will give the latest snapshot of the health of the world’s largest economy
  • 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless claims figures will provide insight into America’s labour market

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