Winners
Pharmaceuticals
The chance of a clampdown on drug pricing, as promised by Hillary Clinton, has now disappeared, benefiting global pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline.
Infrastructure companies
Trump promised to spend around $500bn to improve America’s transportation, water, telecommunications and electricity systems, which would benefit construction firms such as Caterpillar.
Mining groups and steel companies
The infrastructure spending plans should help mining companies and steel specialists, which would also benefit from any moves that boost US economic growth. Precious metal miners are in demand as investors buy gold and silver as havens for their cash amid the uncertainty.
Coal
Trump has promised to revitalise the US coal industry and has no qualms about global warming.
Rail companies
Rail will be boosted by Trump’s spending plans, and increase freight transportation.
Technology businesses
Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet have huge cash piles which they are more likely to repatriate back to the US to pay out as dividends or use to make acquisitions. At the moment, they would pay 39% tax but Trump has proposed a one-off charge of 10% for repatriated cash.
Retailers and restaurants
Trump’s plans to reduce individual and corporate tax bills could help lift the economy and boost consumer spending.
Defence companies
They will benefit if Trump either persuades Nato to increase defence spending or if he reduces US involvement in Europe and forces local governments to lift their own expenditure.
Losers
Renewable energy
Remember “climate change as a Chinese fiction”? Trump has already said he would cancel the Paris agreement to cut emissions, leaving renewables companies out in the cold.
The Mexican peso
The prospect of a physical wall between the US and Mexico has already hit the country’s currency and other losers will be businesses with substantial earnings in the country, such as Tate & Lyle and the Spanish bank BBVA. Any renegotiation of trade deals is also likely to hit Mexico.
US healthcare providers, hospitals and insurers
Trump has promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act – Obamacare – which would cause massive uncertainty in the sector and a probable fall in the number of people insured.
Global freight companies
If Trump puts up new barriers to trade and cancels existing deals, non-US transportation and logistics companies such as AP Moller-Maersk and Deutsche Post could be affected.
Carmakers
US carmakers who have factories in Mexico where labour costs are lower would lose out from Trump’s plans, while Japanese firms will be hit by the expected volatile currency fluctuations between the dollar and the yen.
Telecoms and media
The outlook is uncertain, especially for AT&T’s plan to buy Time Warner, which Trump has said he would block.
Polling and gaming companies
Once again pollsters called it wrong (see Brexit etc) while gaming companies were also caught unawares, with Paddy Power paying out on a Clinton victory three weeks early.
